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Hot Girl Econ: Your August Economic Snapshot

August was a lot for the economy — layoffs, tariffs, housing shifts, corporate shakeups, and even robots giving massages. But if you know how to connect the dots, these stories give you a real edge in managing your money and making smarter investment choices.

Let’s break it down.

TLDR

• Unemployment is rising — especially hitting Black women, moms, and recent grads.
• Tariffs + policy changes are starting to show up in layoffs and higher costs.
• Housing is cooling — more inventory, slower growth — but affordability still sucks.
• GDP grew faster than expected (AI + EV demand helped), but companies are nervous.
• Big-name businesses are splitting up, cutting staff, or betting on AI and EVs.
• Stocks are wobbly heading into September, historically one of the roughest months.

💡 Why you should care

Every one of these stories connects back to your wallet.

• Tariffs → higher prices + slower hiring.
• Corporate splits → stock shifts.
• EV tax credits → a rush to buy before costs spike.
• Housing inventory → might signal better deals ahead if rates drop.

By paying attention to the details, you’ll start spotting trends that help you:

• Time your big purchases.
• Understand stock + job market moves.
• Keep up in convos that sound intimidating.

Let's get into it - and don't forget your takeaways at the bottom of this newsletter

📈 The Economy: Jobs, Growth & Rates

Jobs are slowing down.

• Unemployment for women with children — especially Black women — is rising the most as companies push back-to-office.
• Recent grads? Their unemployment rate is up 1.34% compared to 2019.
• August saw layoffs across industries like mining, construction, manufacturing, information, and federal government jobs. Without growth in healthcare keeping things afloat, we’d be down 140,000 jobs total.
• Long-term unemployment (6 months or more) now describes 25% of job seekers, the highest since 2022.
• Black unemployment is up 340,000 people out of work this year alone.

Why it matters: fewer jobs + slower hiring means less bargaining power for workers and more cautious spending.

Revisions paint a darker picture.​
June data revisions showed the first monthly net job loss since December 2020. That’s a big deal — it means the labor market was weaker than we thought in real time.

Tariffs are showing up in the job market.​
Companies are facing higher costs from tariffs and immigration policy shifts, making them less willing to hire.

The Fed’s next move?​
Economists expect a September rate cut, with more possible in October or December. It’s the Fed’s way of trying to stop further layoffs and soften the slowdown.

GDP surprise.​
The U.S. economy grew 3.3% in Q2, faster than the 3% estimate. Why?

• AI investment is boosting growth.
• Additionally, numbers look higher because companies imported goods early to dodge tariffs (which artificially inflated GDP).

🏠 Housing Market

• Pending home sales fell 0.5% in July compared with June.
• House prices are rising more slowly and even dropping in some places.
• Inventory is up, which normally cools prices, but affordability is still brutal because of high rates.

🏢 Business Tea: Corporate Moves That Matter

Retailers are in survival mode.

• The de minimis exemption (letting small imports avoid tariffs) ended. Over 90% of e-commerce cargo relied on it. Brands like Shein and Amazon will be hit.
• Macy’s is staging a turnaround: store sales grew for the first time since 2022, and stock surged 21% in a single day. They’re adding new brands, more dressing room staff, and closing underperforming stores.
• Other retailers? Struggling. Target reported its 11th straight quarter of flat or falling sales. Stock dropped 6.3% in a day as they announced a new CEO.
• Companies like Levi's and Ralph Lauren are saving their bottom lines by giving up sale prices. Consumers? Still buying. That's because consumers with incomes over $250k (just 13% of households) now make up half of all consumer spending. Everyone else is cutting back.
• Amazon launched same-day grocery delivery to 1,000 cities this year, planning to double by year-end. Prime members get it free. Result? Grocery stocks tanked (Instacart -14%, DoorDash -4%, Kroger -6%, Walmart -4%) while Amazon shares ended the week up 4%.

Corporate shakeups.

• ​Kraft Heinz is undoing its 2015 mega-merger, splitting into two companies: one for sauces/seasonings/spreads, another for staples like Oscar Mayer and Kraft Singles. Its stock dropped on the news.
• Keurig Dr. Pepper is also unmerging, following the same trend Kellogg's started last year.

Tech + AI.

• Meta froze AI hiring after months of aggressive spending. Its stock fell.
• Novo Nordisk (Ozempic, Wegovy) also froze hiring, struggling against new competitors.
• AI investments are still propping up GDP — companies keep spending big here.

Healthcare & wellness.

• Equinox introduced AI robot masseuses at 60 gyms. $60 for 30 minutes (about half the price of a human massage with tip). They’ve already logged 400,000 sessions in 6 months, generating $23 million revenue.

💸 Spending Trends: What’s Up & What’s Down

Up:

• EV purchases – Shoppers are buying more electric vehicles ahead of Sept 30 tax incentive expiration, and companies like Walmart are building charging stations to support growth.
• Luxury spending in some areas – Coach sales are up 14% despite tariff-related challenges, showing selective resilience in the luxury market.
• Amazon grocery delivery – Same-day delivery is expanding in 1,000 cities, free for Prime members, boosting Amazon shares 4%.
• AI services – AI-powered massage robots at Equinox have completed 400,000 sessions in 6 months, earning $23M; labor shortages make AI a viable option for some services.

Down:

• Retail sales at mid-tier stores – Target is struggling with messy, understocked stores and falling sales; stock down 6.3% in a day. Macy’s turnaround is a rare exception.
• Travel – Fewer international visitors to the U.S., down 3.8% from 2024, with the biggest decline from Canada.
• Luxury spending in other areas – Kate Spade sales dropped 13%, and Tapestry’s stocks fell 8% after tariff impacts.
• Grocery competitors – Instacart (-14%), DoorDash (-4%), Kroger (-6%), and Walmart (-4%) fell as Amazon’s grocery delivery grows.
• Home renovations – Consumers are delaying large projects; Home Depot missed expectations, signaling economic caution.

📊 Markets

• The three major indexes (The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500) ended lower to start September, thanks to weak jobs data and Fed uncertainty.
• Early September is historically the worst time for stocks, so volatility isn’t surprising.
• Bond markets are heating up: companies are rushing to sell bonds now because investors are eager to buy because they expect rate cuts soon, meaning future bonds will be less attractive. Translation: cheap borrowing for companies, decent yields for investors (for now). This could help companies fund expansion cheaply while giving investors short-term gains if rates drop as expected

⚖️ Winners & Losers

Winners:

• AI + EV sectors (still getting heavy investment).
• Macy’s (rare retail comeback story).
• Bond sellers (taking advantage of strong demand).

Losers:

• Workers facing layoffs, slower hiring, and rising long-term unemployment.
• Retailers like Target, Kraft Heinz struggling with weaker demand and breakups.
• Consumers still squeezed on housing and everyday prices.

🔑 Takeaways for Hot Girl Econ Readers

• Jobs are weakening → build cash buffers and polish your resume.
• Tariffs = higher prices → rethink your budget (👀 my budget spreadsheet helps).
• Housing is cooling → patience may finally pay off for buyers.
• Retail and corporate shakeups show how fast industries can change → opportunities for smart investors.
• AI isn’t “future tech” — it’s already reshaping everyday life and the job market.

👉 Want a plan to stay secure no matter what the headlines throw at us? My Financial Freedom Workbook gives you the 7-step roadmap to build stability and confidence in any economy.

Wishing you a rich life,

Lora at She's a Lot

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